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Locked in Middle East wars and battered by sanctions, Iran is wary of US presidential election

Locked in Middle East wars and battered by sanctions, Iran is wary of US presidential election

Tehran, Iran — America’s presidential election next week comes just after Iran marks the 45th anniversary of the 1979 US Embassy hostage crisis — and for many, tensions between Tehran and Washington feel as high as they did then .

Iran remains locked in the Middle East wars roiling the region, with its allies – militant groups and self-described “Axis of Resistance” fighters – battered as Israel presses its war in the Gaza Strip, targeting Hamas and an invasion of Lebanon amid attacks devastating. against Hezbollah. At the same time, Iran appears to still be assessing the damage from Israel’s attacks on the Islamic Republic last Saturday in response to two Iranian ballistic missile attacks.

Iran’s rial is nearing record lows against the dollar, battered by international sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear program to enrich uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels.

In public spaces, women still openly defy Iran’s mandatory headscarf or hijab law following mass demonstrations over the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, which still haunt the country.

This left a sense of fatalism among some on the streets of the capital, Tehran, as Americans voted for either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Many are divided on which candidate would be better for their country – if at all.

“All American presidents elected after the (1979) revolution have had the same views on Iran and I think they are unlikely to change,” said Sadegh Rabbani, 65.

Harris and Trump have offered tough views on Iran, making Iranians wary

Both candidates have either adopted or expressed hardline positions on Iran.

In 2018, Trump unilaterally pulled America out of Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers, triggering years of attacks in the Middle East even before the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. Trump has been briefed on Iranian plots to retaliate against him, as well as his decision to launch a drone strike in 2020 that killed Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad.

Harris, meanwhile, promised at the presidential debate in September that he would always give Israel the ability to defend itself, particularly with regard to Iran and any threat Iran and its proxies pose to Israel.

For its part, the Biden administration has tried indirect negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, which have produced no tangible results, although it did reach a prisoner exchange deal that would see five Americans held for years in Iran free in September 2023.

In an open-air cafe in downtown Tehran popular with young people, Zahra Rezaei, 22, said she preferred a win to Harris.

“I’ve seen Trump in the past and he just ran an anti-Iran policy,” Rezaei told The Associated Press. “It’s time for a woman…I think she (Harris) will do since it’s not after the war.”

Ebrahim Shiri, a 28-year-old political science graduate student, agreed.

“I think Harris knows the world better,” he said. “She and (Joe) Biden convinced Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. This means moving towards peace.”

Others think Trump, with his promises to make deals, might be a better fit.

“I don’t know what the American people think, but Trump is able to reach a quick deal with Iran,” said Mohammad Ali Raoufi, 43, who runs a double-glazed window workshop. “The Biden administration, including Harris, has not been able to reach any (deal) with Iran in the last few years that they have been in power.”

Reza Ghaemi, a 31-year-old taxi driver, also suggested that Trump could ease tensions in the region because he has pushed to withdraw US troops from the Middle East during his tenure.

The Iranian government wants sanctions lifted and hopes for another nuclear deal

Many declined to speak to the AP on camera — Iran has only state television and radio stations, so people are suspicious of reporters with video cameras working openly on the street.

A woman passing by immediately gathered her headscarf, which was loose, after seeing the camera. However, one woman spoke on camera as her hijab fell off, and another did not wear it at all – a sign of how much Iran has changed since Amini’s death.

Those who spoke to the AP mostly expressed concern about an outright U.S.-Iran war, especially if Trump wins.

While he said he wanted Trump to win “for my reasons”, Ahmad Moradi, 53, claimed he would make a US-Iran war “100%” certain to happen.

A woman who gave her name only as Mahnaz, fearing repercussions for speaking out, suggested that Harris, as a woman, could not reach any deal with Iran because “men can talk to men.”

“I think if Trump is elected, it will be much harder for our children. Of course it does not matter who is chosen, it is already difficult for us,” said Fariba Oodi.

“We, the Iranian people, are caught in a political game. And our children are paying a price for that,” she added. “But I still think that if it’s Trump, it will be more difficult, especially for my son, who is a student and plans to apply” to study in America.

Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected after a helicopter crash killed hardline President Ebrahim Raisi in May, came to power on the promise of a deal to ease Western sanctions.

Iranian officials say separating the nuclear talks from the Middle East wars is possible, even as the US has accused Iran of meddling in the November election, which Tehran denies.

Fatemeh Mohajerani, a spokeswoman for Pezeshkian’s administration, said Tehran wanted to see a change in US policies and respect for the “national sovereignty of other countries”. She also wants Washington to “avoid activities that generate tension, as we have witnessed in recent years,” she said.

However, analysts see a difficult road ahead for any talks between the US and Iran, regardless of who wins next Tuesday.

“The talks will be a war of attrition,” Ali Soufi told the pro-reform newspaper Shargh. Saeed Nourmohammadi, another analyst, suggested that such talks “are unlikely to be fruitful”.

But ultimately, any decision rests with Iran’s supreme leader, 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“You know, Khamenei has seen eight American presidents” come and go, said Abbas Ghasemi, a 67-year-old retired teacher, “He knows how to deal with the next one.”

Associated Press writer Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report.